UK GDP trends by industry (Q3 2024)
Here’s my per-industry economic performance analysis and commentary for Q3 2024.
Looking at GVA (Gross Value Added, real-terms, seasonally adjusted) for the last three quarters (Q1 2024 to Q3 2024), and performing a second derivative analysis, the table above identifies the growth trends for each primary industry.
UK GDP is on a shallow growth trend long-term but it’s decelerating — it needs a boost, but which industries are positioned to provide that?
The largest industry, real estate is growing but showing hints of slowing down. Encouragingly, wholesale & retail trade looks like it’s bottomed-out and is turning a corner, while manufacturing’s 18-month downward trend is slowing down.
There’s plenty of stalling and deceleration going on across the UK’s industries at the moment. There are hints of positivity amid the economic confidence crisis, but it’ll probably be another six months before we can see if any solid, positive trends emerge.
UK’s largest industries by GVA (as of Q3 2024):
- Real estate activities: £74m
- Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles: £57m
- Manufacturing: £51m
- Financial and insurance activities: £49m
- Professional, scientific and technical activities: £48m
Data from the ONS (“GDP output approach — low-level aggregates”, 23 December 2024 release). Analysis by me.
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