[This is a archive post, previously released on LinkedIn]
The UK’s GDP is slowing, but how are the individual industries performing?
Looking at GVA (real-terms, seasonally adjusted) for the last four quarters (Q3 2021 to Q2 2022), and performing a second derivative analysis, the table below identifies the growth trends for each primary industry.
- Over half (62%) of industries have been growing, however for 75% of those, that growth is slowing down.
- Only three industries have accelerating growth: (1) education, (2) electricity and gas production (ahem!) and (3) water supply and sewerage.
- A quarter of industries have been oscillating around zero growth, with the oscillations narrowing over time.
- The rest (three industries) have been shrinking, and in all cases the shrinkage is slowing.
For reference, the top 5 industries by GVA, in Q2 2022 are:
1) Real estate (£65b, stable)
2) Manufacturing (£51b, shrinking)
3) Financial and insurance (£43b, stable)
4) Wholesale and retail trade (£42b, shrinking)
5) Professional, scientific and technical activities (£40b, growing)
Overall, a bit of a mixed bag when breaking down by industry. However, the concern is the presence of both (1) major industries that are either already shrinking or not growing, and (2) so much deceleration in the industries that are growing. The outlook isn’t looking good.
Data from the ONS (“GDP output approach — low-level aggregates”, 30 Sep 2022 release). Analysis by me.