UK GDP trends by industry (Q1 2023)
Here’s my per-industry economic performance analysis and commentary for Q1 2023.
Looking at GVA (Gross Value Added, real-terms, seasonally adjusted) for the last three quarters (Q3 2022 to Q1 2023), and performing a second derivative analysis, the table above identifies the growth trends for each primary industry.
Findings:
- One third of industries are growing, but half of those are slowing down.
- Slightly under half of industries are oscillating around zero growth.
- Over 20% of industries are shrinking.
- No industries have accelerating growth.
The top 5 industries by GVA, in Q1 2023 were:
- Real estate (£65.8b, shrinking)
- Manufacturing (£51.3b, growing)
- Financial and insurance (£42.9b, stable)
- Wholesale and retail trade (£42.6b, stable)
- Professional, scientific and technical activities (£39.9b, growing)
The UK economy has picked up since narrowly avoiding a technical recession. There have been two quarters of consistent growth, in aggregate. This headline picture, however, hides an on-going mixed bag of stalling growth in nearly half of the UK’s industries, downturns in mining, accommodation and public administration, and a slowdown in real estate. On the positive side, manufacturing is showing consistent growth, and arts & entertainment is starting to recover. If inflation and energy prices ease over the coming months, particularly on the commercial side, then we will hopefully see more industries turning positive.
Data from the ONS (“GDP output approach — low-level aggregates”, 12 May 2023 release). Analysis by me.
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